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Solar payback, post-ITC honest.
Tool · Solar Reality Check 2026

Solar payback,
post-ITC honest.

State + system size + electricity rate → real 2026 payback period without the expired federal credit. Surfaces the delta if your installer's proposal still cites the 30% federal ITC.

What does residential solar actually pay back in 2026 without the federal credit?

In ~10 states with strong surviving programs (NY, MA, NJ, IL, MD, OR, CT, RI, VT, MN): typically 8-12 years post-ITC. In ~10 coin-flip states: 12-17 years. In the remaining ~30 states with no surviving program: 15-22 years on net-metering and rate-avoidance alone. Battery storage shifts the calc 2-4 years either direction depending on time-of-use rate spread.

Northeast region · Net metering: full · SRECs: active · Surviving programs: SMART (Solar Massachusetts Renewable Target) (+ 1 more)

Typical residential install is 6-10 kW; size to your annual consumption (≈9440 kWh/yr produced).

2026 national range $2.50-4.00/W. Lower end: large standardized installers in mature markets (CA, AZ, TX). Higher end: smaller installers, complex roofs, premium panels.

From your utility statement (12-month average is best). Implied rate at this bill: $0.20/kWh.

Did your installer's proposal include the 30% federal credit?

The Section 25D federal residential ITC expired 12/31/2025. Any 2026 proposal still showing it is overstating your real return — we'll surface the delta.

Solid economics

Payback under 10 years post-ITC. Massachusetts's combination of full retail-rate net metering plus an active SREC market keeps the economics solid even without the federal credit.

Real 2026 payback (no federal ITC)7.3 yrs
Total install cost$24,000
Annual production (Northeast)9,440 kWh
Bill-offset savings (55% self-consumed)$1,888/yr
SREC income (Massachusetts active market)+$1,416/yr
Total annual savings$3,304/yr
25-year net (no rate inflation)+$58,600

Reference, not a quote. Estimates assume 55% self-consumption, no rate inflation, no degradation modeling, and a typical install for the state. Storage-paired systems shift the self-consumption calc favorably. Some state programs (NY-Sun, MA SMART, NJ SuSI, IL Shines) add upfront rebates or capacity-block payments not modeled here — verify per-state. The federal residential ITC (Section 25D) expired 12/31/2025; any 2026 proposal showing it is incorrect for self-owned residential.

Manual recalculation — strip the ITC, redo the payback

  1. Find the “federal tax credit” or “ITC” line on the proposal. If it shows 30% of system cost, that’s the expired Section 25D credit.
  2. Add that dollar amount back to your net system cost.
  3. Verify your state-level incentives are current — the DSIRE registry (programs.dsireusa.org) is the source of truth.
  4. Recalculate annual savings using your actual utility’s current net-metering rule (full retail vs partial vs no NEM).
  5. New payback = adjusted net cost ÷ annual savings.

If the new payback exceeds 15 years, the install almost certainly does not pencil out unless you have an explicit non-economic reason (climate-action conviction, grid-resilience for outage-prone areas, EV charging offset).

States where solar still works in 2026

Strongest residential-solar economics post-ITC: NY, MA, NJ, IL, MD, OR, CT, RI, VT, MN. Each has surviving state programs that materially change the payback math. See the solar hub for program-by-program detail.

Common questions

Most installer marketing tools were built around the 30% credit and have not been comprehensively updated since the credit expired 12/31/2025. Some installers update one-off; some quote pre-printed templates. Either way, if a 2026+ residential proposal cites the federal credit as a deduction, the math is wrong by roughly 30% of system cost.
NY (NY-Sun + state income-tax credit + NYSERDA storage), MA (SMART + state credit), NJ (SuSI), IL (Illinois Shines/ABP + SREC market), MD (Energy Storage Tax Credit + state grant + SREC), OR (Energy Trust + storage rebate), CT (residential grant + RNS tariff), RI (Renewable Energy Growth + state grant), VT (Standard Offer + utility credits), MN (Solar*Rewards + sales-tax exemption). In these states, post-ITC payback is typically 8-12 years.
California's residential solar economics changed materially in April 2023 when NEM 3.0 replaced full retail-rate net metering with an export-credit schedule that's 75-80% lower per kWh exported. Combined with the federal ITC expiry, post-2026 California residential solar typically pencils at 9-12 years without battery storage and 7-10 years with — vs the 6-8 years that NEM 2.0 + 30% ITC delivered in 2024 marketing.
Annual savings = (kWh produced × retail rate × self-consumption %) + (kWh exported × export rate × export %). Payback = system net cost ÷ annual savings. For a 10kW system in a moderate-sun state on a $0.15/kWh rate with 60% self-consumption + 40% exported at $0.04/kWh wholesale: annual savings ≈ $1,200, system net cost (post-state-incentives, post-ITC-expiry) ≈ $20,000-25,000, payback ≈ 17-21 years. That's the math most installers don't show.
Pair with the right roofer

Solar going on a 15-year-old roof? Replace the roof first.

Tearing solar off and reinstalling at the next replacement runs $3-8k beyond the new-roof job. Coordinate the work — many of our vetted roofers handle both.

Find a roofer →Read the solar hub