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Solar economics, post-ITC honest.
Hub · Solar + Roof System

Solar economics,
post-ITC honest.

The federal residential solar credit expired 12/31/2025. Most installer marketing in 2026 still cites the 30% credit. Here's where solar still pencils out, where it doesn't, and the timing question with roof replacement.

Solar Reality CheckFind my state

Is residential solar still worth it in 2026 after the federal credit expired?

State-by-state. ~10 states have surviving incentive programs strong enough for solar to pencil out in 8-12 years (NY, MA, NJ, IL, MD, OR, CT, RI, VT, MN). ~10 are coin-flip — depending on utility, sun exposure, and self-consumption rate. ~30 are honest 'not without a fight' — payback runs 15-22 years on net-metering credits + electricity-rate avoidance alone.

Why your installer’s pitch is probably wrong

The federal residential solar Investment Tax Credit (Section 25D) ended 12/31/20251 under the One Big Beautiful Bill Act passed in 20252. Most installer marketing materials, websites, and customer-facing financing tools were built around the 30% credit and have not all been updated. As of 2026-04, an unsettling share of solar quotes still show “30% federal tax credit” as a line item on the proposal — sometimes prominently, sometimes folded into the financing math.

That single number can flip a 12-year payback into a 17-year payback. We test for it on every solar proposal we review. If your proposal shows a 30% federal residential credit for a 2026+ install, the installer is either out of date or misleading. Walk.

Note: Section 48E (commercial / 3rd-party / PPA / lease) continues with phase-down rules. If your installer is structuring the install as a third-party-owned system (PPA or lease), the commercial credit can flow to the owner — but typically that doesn’t reduce your monthly bill more than a self-owned system without the credit.

Where solar still works in 2026

States with surviving incentive programs strong enough for solar to clear 8-12 year payback (post-ITC)3:

  • New York — NY-Sun Megawatt Block + state income-tax credit (25%/$5,000) + NYSERDA storage rebate
  • Massachusetts — SMART program tariffs + state income-tax credit (15%/$1,000)
  • New Jersey — Successor Solar Incentive (SuSI) + sales/property tax exemption
  • Illinois — Illinois Shines / Adjustable Block Program (ABP) + active SREC market
  • Maryland — Energy Storage Tax Credit + state solar grant + SREC market
  • Oregon — Energy Trust of Oregon residential incentive + state solar+storage rebate
  • Connecticut, Rhode Island, Vermont, Minnesota — utility programs + state-level incentives

Use the Solar Reality Check 2026 tool for the actual payback math by state and utility.

The roof + solar timing question

Solar panels last 25 years. Asphalt shingle roofs last 25-30 years (architectural) or 30-40 years (Class 4 impact). The arithmetic is unforgiving: if your roof is past 60% of rated lifespan, replace it before solar. Tearing solar off and reinstalling at the next roof replacement costs $3-8k beyond the new-roof job. Coordinate the work — many contractors do both, with single-warranty coverage on flashing details.

If your roof is younger than 60% of lifespan, solar-on-existing-roof is fine — just verify warranty (most asphalt manufacturers explicitly cover panel-mounted roofs as long as the install uses approved flashing).

Common questions

Yes. Section 25D — the 30% federal residential solar Investment Tax Credit — expired 12/31/2025 under the One Big Beautiful Bill Act. Section 48E (commercial / 3rd-party PPA / lease arrangements) continues with phase-down rules. Most installer marketing in 2026 still references the 30% credit on residential proposals. That language is incorrect for new residential installs after 12/31/2025.
It depends entirely on your state. ~10 states have surviving programs strong enough that solar still pencils out in 8-12 years (NY, MA, NJ, IL, MD, OR, CT, RI, VT, MN). ~10 states are coin-flip — depending on utility, sun exposure, and self-consumption rate. ~30 states are honest "not without a fight" — payback runs entirely on net-metering and electricity-rate avoidance, often 15-22 years.
Yes, if your roof is past 60% of expected lifespan. Solar panels last 25 years; mounting them on a 15-year-old roof means tearing them down + reinstalling at the next replacement (a $3-8k labor cost beyond the roof job itself). Replace the roof first, then solar — or do them together with a contractor who coordinates flashing details and ensures the roof warranty doesn't void.
Most carriers require notice when you install solar, and many require a higher deductible on the roof under the array (since panel removal cost is real during a roof claim). A few carriers — especially in high-fire states (CA, OR) — exclude the roof under the array from wind/hail coverage. Verify with your specific carrier in writing before signing the solar contract.
Integrated solar shingle systems trade higher install cost (1.6-2× rack-mount) for aesthetic value (no panels visible above the roofline) and warranty unification. They make sense when (a) HOA forbids visible panels, (b) you would have replaced the roof anyway, and (c) the labor savings of "one trade does both jobs" offsets the per-watt premium. The break-even is narrow — most homeowners are better off with rack-mount on a fresh asphalt roof.
California's post-2023 net-metering structure that replaced full retail-rate net-metering (NEM 2.0) with a much-lower export-credit schedule. Payback periods on California residential solar lengthened from 6-8 years (NEM 2.0) to 9-12 years (NEM 3.0) without batteries — and 7-10 years with battery storage. Other states are watching California; net-metering reform is the policy fight that determines post-ITC solar economics in the 2026-2030 window.

Sources

  1. Internal Revenue Service·IRS Form 5695 / Section 25D guidance — Federal residential clean energy credit guidance — Section 25D expired 12/31/2025.
  2. US Congress / Public Law·One Big Beautiful Bill Act (2025) — Statute that ended the residential ITC effective 12/31/2025.
  3. NC Clean Energy Technology Center·Database of State Incentives for Renewables & Efficiency — Authoritative state-by-state registry of solar incentive programs.
  4. NREL — National Renewable Energy Laboratory·PVWatts Calculator — Federal model for solar production estimation by location.

Answers

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Run the math

Solar Reality Check 2026.

State + utility + system size + self-consumption rate → 2026 honest payback period (federal ITC removed). Plus a flag if your installer's proposal still cites the expired credit.

Open the tool → →Find my state